GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its forecast for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent, a significant rise from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent issued in March. The WTO attributed this upward revision to robust trade performance in the first half of the year, supply chain improvements, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite notable disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. Looking ahead, the organization now anticipates merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand linked to artificial intelligence played a key role in boosting merchandise trade during the initial half of 2026. Goods related to AI, including semiconductors and servers, contributed 47 percent to the overall global merchandise trade growth. Trade in these items surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, the WTO mentioned that global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026. The increased demand for computing hardware supported trade activity, even as other sectors faced setbacks caused by conflicts and logistical issues.
Adjustments across global supply chains were evident as major commodity and shipping markets experienced pressure. In the Middle East, crude oil exports declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026, while LNG exports from the region dropped by 47 percent during the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative sources mitigated the overall decline to around 6 percent for crude oil. The global LNG export figure decreased by just 1 percent. Additionally, worldwide container throughput increased by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting trade rerouting through different ports and routes.
Artificial intelligence-related goods boost global merchandise trade
While merchandise trade shows a positive outlook, expectations for commercial services trade are more subdued. The WTO has revised its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth down to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel. Tourist arrivals internationally decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, remaining only 0.4 percent higher across the first half of the year. Growth in travel expenditure also slowed considerably between the two quarters.
Despite these setbacks, other service sectors performed better. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports grew by 14 percent year-over-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027. The organization also predicts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026, rising to 2.9 percent in the following year.
Global trade growth remains uneven across regions
Regional forecasts for merchandise trade reveal considerable variation within the global economy. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America’s exports are forecasted to grow by 5.7 percent, and Africa by 5.6 percent. South America is projected to see 3.4 percent growth, whereas Europe is expected to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to decrease by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies substantially across regions in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is predicted to see 9.5 percent growth in merchandise imports, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North America’s imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, while Europe’s are projected to grow by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are forecast to fall by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the recent figures demonstrate trade resilience, but also underscore the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical shocks.