BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, the cost of road fuel is projected to increase the transportation expenses of the European Union by an estimated €53 billion. This estimate was published by Transport & Environment on September 23 after analyzing data from the past 28 weeks up to September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditures during this period with the same timeframe in the previous year, adjusting figures for inflation. Diesel was responsible for approximately €40 billion of the additional costs. The calculation encompasses spending on diesel and petrol related to road transport.
According to T&E, higher fuel prices contributed an average of €270 million daily to the EU’s road transport costs. Out of this, diesel accounted for about €203 million per day, while petrol contributed roughly €67 million. The rise has been attributed to tighter refined-fuel supplies due to the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries. These supply constraints widened the price gap between crude oil and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil together constitute about 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has separately reported considerable fluctuations in crude oil and refined-product markets, with particular volatility for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU does not face an immediate oil supply crisis. They noted that increased refinery output within the EU and alternative global sources are sufficient to meet current demand. Additionally, emergency and commercial oil stocks remain adequate. Geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence the significant price volatility seen across global oil and petroleum markets.
Rising Diesel Prices Impact Drivers and Logistics Firms
For individual drivers, T&E estimates that the average EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the study period. By September 14, the group calculated an additional €30 cost on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-haul truck operators in Germany faced an extra weekly fuel expense of approximately €236. The analysis reports that Europe has around 6.2 million trucks on its roads. Increased diesel prices have also affected road freight companies and other commercial fuel users.
Diesel remains a fundamental component of EU road transport and freight operations. T&E highlighted that in 2024, 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption was attributed to road transportation. Eurostat data show that gas and diesel oil provided 63.2% of the energy used for road transport that year. Motor gasoline accounted for 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels supplied 6.2%. Electricity contributed only 0.7% of transportation energy consumption, with diesel and gasoline alone representing 90.1% of road transport energy in 2024.
EU Fuel Price Data Under Continual Review
On September 24, the European Commission issued an update to its Weekly Oil Bulletin, providing the latest consumer petroleum prices from EU nations. This bulletin tracks weekly price variations, both with and without taxes, and maintains a historical series dating back to 2005. The update followed the end of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and regularly publishes comparative analyses across member states. Its September 8 supply assessment also identified diesel and jet fuel as products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate by the environmental organization, not an official EU figure. The analysis calculates the increased road fuel expenditure over the 28-week comparison period in 2026. It also discusses the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel being responsible for most of the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures to curb diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continue to monitor fuel prices, supply dynamics, and petroleum consumption across the bloc.