POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – A new study suggests that climate change could almost triple the annual land area affected by wildfires across Europe by 2100. The research indicates a 192% surge in burned regions under a high-emissions pathway associated with approximately 3.6°C of global temperature rise. This comes after notable wildfires in 2026 impacted parts of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The core climate factors identified as drivers are hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers examined a low-emissions scenario, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions scenario, SSP3-7.0. The former aligns with roughly 1.8°C of warming, whereas the latter reaches about 3.6°C. Socioeconomic variables were kept constant in different tests to evaluate their influence separately on wildfire activity.
According to one model, under the lower-emissions pathway, about 39% more land could burn annually by the century’s end. A second model suggested a potential decrease in burned area under lower warming, due to differing representations of historical human impact. Conversely, the high-emissions scenario predicted significantly larger increases, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe—regions with historically limited fire activity.
Models attribute burned area increases to emissions
The research highlights that future wildfire levels across Europe are strongly influenced by fire weather conditions and firefighting capabilities. Factors such as population density, shifts in vegetation, and land use also play crucial roles at regional scales. Lead author Maik Billing, associated with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, led the study, which distinguishes climate-driven fire weather from human-related factors affecting fire spread.
Advances in prevention, early detection, and firefighting efforts could reduce the extent of burned areas by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking these improvements. The potential for reduction was greater under the lower-emissions pathway and less pronounced with more severe warming. Nonetheless, even with ongoing improvements in fire management, approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions are projected to experience increased fire activity due to intense climate change. Co-author Thomas Hickler is affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany.
Effective fire management can help contain wildfire spread
These findings emerge amid an intense wildfire season in Europe during 2026, with hot and dry conditions fueling significant fires. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but regions further north were also affected. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating an increase in fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The researchers pointed out that these patterns mirror changing fire weather as rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells become more common.
The study emphasizes that the 192% increase is not an unavoidable forecast but a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions used. It also notes that a much smaller rise in burned areas could occur under lower emissions, especially with stronger fire management measures in place. However, management alone cannot fully counteract the rise in fire activity caused by higher temperatures. The key factors influencing Europe’s future wildfire landscape are emissions levels, fire weather, and firefighting capacity.