ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal production for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the previous year’s record. Despite this decline, the total is forecasted to remain as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July forecast. This annual reduction of 61.1 million tonnes marks the most significant year-on-year drop since 2018.
After deteriorating crop prospects, global maize production is now predicted to be 1.309 billion tonnes, a reduction from earlier estimates. Prolonged summer heat and drought conditions negatively impacted yields across major European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also resulted in downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, leading to an overall maize output in 2026 that is well above average for both countries.
Forecasts for world wheat production have increased to 810.7 million tonnes, a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from previous projections. Improved yield outlooks for Canada and Morocco raised estimates by around 1.5 million tonnes each. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine saw upward revisions, while dry weather reduced expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these gains, global wheat production is still expected to be 3.8% below 2025 and remains the second-largest crop on record.
Maize decline influences global cereal forecast downgrade
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is forecast at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by Myanmar’s improved figures and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka. These gains offset reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
According to the FAO, global cereal consumption is projected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a 0.2% increase over the previous season. While coarse grain and rice consumption are expected to grow, wheat use is forecasted to decline from last season’s high levels. World rice utilization is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed demand continues to be a significant factor for coarse grains, including barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States.
Global grain inventories remain at comfortable levels historically
Forecasts indicate world cereal stocks will total 947.2 million tonnes at the end of the 2027 seasons. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes lower than earlier projections but still 1.8 million tonnes above the opening stock levels. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals globally is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. While wheat reserves are anticipated to grow in Russia and Ukraine, reduced maize and barley inventories have lowered the overall stock outlook.
International trade in cereals for 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates. Despite this rise, total trade remains below the record volume seen in 2025/26. The increase is mainly driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina projected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade for 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, yet overall rice shipments are still 1.9% below the 2025 record.